Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

LOU 31 – NCSU 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

LOU -5.5

Sportsbooks make Louisville Cardinals the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 56.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Louisville Cardinals logo Louisville Cardinals31

NC State Wolfpack logo NC State Wolfpack26

Final score

Louisville Cardinals logo Louisville Cardinals28

NC State Wolfpack logo NC State Wolfpack31

ACC Network — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack projection

Louisville Cardinals visit NC State Wolfpack in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects LOU 30 – NCSU 27, a 3-point edge to Louisville Cardinals. DraftKings currently has NCSU +3.5 with a total of 56.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.61 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +3.5 / 56.5, which sat 5.758 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.61 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (3.5 / 56.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Jaleel Skinner — Anytime touchdown: Yes+240DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Oct 3, 12:08 PM EDT · result loss
Will Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Oct 3, 12:08 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Dylan McCoy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NCSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +340
Dylan McCoy scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+340), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Lawayne McCoy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +145
Lawayne McCoy scored in 3 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Lawayne McCoy scored a touchdown
Marquise Davis — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +360
Marquise Davis scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Keenan Jackson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NCSU
We project 0.78Recent average 0.39 over 8 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +200
Keenan Jackson scored in 2 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 4 games last season (0.78 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 39% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Keenan Jackson scored a touchdown
Jaleel Skinner — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LOU
We project 0.64Recent average 0.64 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +240
Jaleel Skinner scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.64 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 64% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+240), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jaleel Skinner did not score a touchdown
Will Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NCSU
We project 1.31Recent average 0.75 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +130
Will Wilson scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 3 of 4 games last season (1.31 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Will Wilson scored a touchdown