Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison
Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
WYO 13 – NDSU 31
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
NDSU -17.5
Sportsbooks make North Dakota State Bison the favorite by 17.5. Expected combined score: 44.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Wyoming Cowboys13
North Dakota State Bison31
Final score
Wyoming Cowboys0
North Dakota State Bison28
CW — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026
Preview: Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison projection
Wyoming Cowboys visit North Dakota State Bison in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects WYO 13 – NDSU 31, a 18-point edge to North Dakota State Bison. DraftKings currently has NDSU -17.5 with a total of 44.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 11 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.31 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -17.5 / 44.5, which sat 2.747 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.31 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-17.5 / 44.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- NDSU
Chris Kiel — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380Chris Kiel scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- WYO
Markell Holman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +175Markell Holman scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Markell Holman did not score a touchdown
- NDSU
Logan Conklin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 3 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +390Logan Conklin scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Logan Conklin did not score a touchdown
- WYO
Kyle Frendt — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.2Recent average 0.2 over 6 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +550Kyle Frendt scored in 1 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 2 games last season (0.2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 20% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Wyoming Cowboys
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Wyoming Cowboys picks & results
Home team
North Dakota State Bison
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all North Dakota State Bison picks & results
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- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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