Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Western Michigan Broncos at Rice Owls

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

WMU 26 – RICE 18

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

WMU -8.5

Sportsbooks make Western Michigan Broncos the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 43.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT

Our projected score

Western Michigan Broncos logo Western Michigan Broncos26

Rice Owls logo Rice Owls18

Final score

Western Michigan Broncos logo Western Michigan Broncos28

Rice Owls logo Rice Owls21

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Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Western Michigan Broncos at Rice Owls projection

Western Michigan Broncos visit Rice Owls in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects WMU 26 – RICE 18, a 8-point edge to Western Michigan Broncos. DraftKings currently has RICE +8.5 with a total of 43.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.59 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +8.5 / 43.5, which sat 5.27 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.59 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (8.5 / 43.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 43.5 — Over -115 / Under -105.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 51 · Over win probability 61.2%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ryan Brotherton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WMU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +850
Ryan Brotherton scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+850), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Egypt Nelson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WMU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450
Egypt Nelson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Egypt Nelson did not score a touchdown
Baylin Brooks — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WMU
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +340
Baylin Brooks scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+340), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Baylin Brooks did not score a touchdown
DAndre Hardeman Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
RICE
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135
DAndre Hardeman Jr. scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: DAndre Hardeman Jr. did not score a touchdown