Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls
Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
WMU 29 – BUFF 16
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
WMU -13.5
Sportsbooks make Western Michigan Broncos the favorite by 13.5. Expected combined score: 45.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Western Michigan Broncos29
Buffalo Bulls16
Final score
Western Michigan Broncos20
Buffalo Bulls17
ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026
Preview: Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls projection
Western Michigan Broncos visit Buffalo Bulls in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects WMU 29 – BUFF 16, a 13-point edge to Western Michigan Broncos. DraftKings currently has BUFF +13.5 with a total of 45.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 11 completed home-side and 16 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.51 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +13.5 / 45.5, which sat 8.548 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.51 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (13.5 / 45.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- BUFF
Chance Morrow — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.39Recent average 0.81 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +125Chance Morrow scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (1.39 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 81% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chance Morrow did not score a touchdown
- BUFF
Jasaiah Gathings — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550Jasaiah Gathings scored in 0 of 2 games this season and in 3 of 6 games last season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- WMU
Egypt Nelson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450Egypt Nelson scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Egypt Nelson did not score a touchdown
- BUFF
Nino Hill — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +130Nino Hill scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Nino Hill did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Western Michigan Broncos
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Western Michigan Broncos picks & results
Home team
Buffalo Bulls
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Buffalo Bulls picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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