Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies
Post-game analysis · Thursday, October 1, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
WKU 27 – NMSU 29
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
NMSU -1.5
Sportsbooks make New Mexico State Aggies the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 55.5
DraftKings · updated Thu, 7:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers27
New Mexico State Aggies29
Final score
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers13
New Mexico State Aggies34
CBSSN — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 1, 2026
Preview: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies projection
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers visit New Mexico State Aggies in NCAA Football on Thursday, October 1, 2026. Our model projects WKU 27 – NMSU 29, a 2-point edge to New Mexico State Aggies. DraftKings currently has NMSU -1.5 with a total of 55.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.43 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -1.5 / 55.5, which sat 2.522 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.43 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-1.5 / 55.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- NMSU
Myles Libman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320Myles Libman scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Myles Libman did not score a touchdown
- WKU
Zion Taylor — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450Zion Taylor scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Zion Taylor did not score a touchdown
- NMSU
Brodie Malone-Bradford — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +285Brodie Malone-Bradford scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 5 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+285), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brodie Malone-Bradford did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-0
See all Western Kentucky Hilltoppers picks & results
Home team
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-0
See all New Mexico State Aggies picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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