Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

WKU 8 – IU 51

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

IU -44.5

Sportsbooks make Indiana Hoosiers the favorite by 44.5. Expected combined score: 59.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers8

Indiana Hoosiers logo Indiana Hoosiers51

Final score

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers0

Indiana Hoosiers logo Indiana Hoosiers38

Peacock — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers projection

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers visit Indiana Hoosiers in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects WKU 9 – IU 52, a 43-point edge to Indiana Hoosiers. DraftKings currently has IU -44.5 with a total of 60.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 15 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.86 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -44.5 / 60.5, which sat 29.133 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.86 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-44.5 / 60.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 59.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Low

Our projected combined score is 60 · Under win probability 50.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Nick Marsh — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -125
Nick Marsh scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 56% in the DraftKings price (-125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Nick Marsh did not score a touchdown
Ajay Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WKU
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +330
Ajay Allen scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+330), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ajay Allen did not score a touchdown
Charlie Becker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IU
We project 2.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -320
Charlie Becker scored in 2 of 2 games this season (2.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 76% in the DraftKings price (-320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Charlie Becker scored a touchdown
Davion Chandler — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
Davion Chandler scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Davion Chandler scored a touchdown