West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take West Virginia Mountaineers +17.5
West Virginia Mountaineers is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 17.5 points.
Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 11:08 AM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
TTU -16.5
Sportsbooks make Texas Tech Red Raiders the favorite by 16.5. Expected combined score: 65.5
DraftKings · updated Fri, 11:07 PM EST
Our projected score
West Virginia Mountaineers26
Texas Tech Red Raiders39
Final score
West Virginia Mountaineers48
Texas Tech Red Raiders53
Pick covered
ESPN — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders
The CoveredSports statistical model leans toward the West Virginia Mountaineers covering as 17.5-point road underdogs against the Texas Tech Red Raiders this Saturday. Our projection forecasts a 39–26 victory for Texas Tech, which falls inside the +17.5 number we took on West Virginia. While the model expects Texas Tech to win comfortably, it projects the final margin at 13 points, leaving a 4.5-point margin of cover for the visitors.
The projection is built from 42 completed games across the current and discounted prior season, using opponent-adjusted final scores and schedule dates. Across 22 home-side and 20 away-side games on file, this creates an effective sample of 7.12 weighted games on the thinner side.
Prior to anchoring, the independent projection diverged from the market line by 6.3 points. After applying a 40% blend toward the market baseline of Texas Tech -17.5 and a 63.5 total, the projection still shows enough separation to assign a high model rating to West Virginia +17.5.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 26 – 39 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread -17.5, total 63.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 22 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 7.12 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 6.3 points from the market.
- Model rating: high.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take West Virginia Mountaineers +17.5
- DraftKings +17.5 · tracked Sun, 11:07 AM EST
- Locked price -110
- Rating high
- Locked Nov 1, 11:08 AM EST — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Michael Hawkins Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes-200DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 7:17 PM EST · result win
- Ryan Ward — Anytime touchdown: Yes+475DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 7:17 PM EST · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TTU
Malcolm Simmons — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600Malcolm Simmons scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- TTU
Matt Ludwig — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550Matt Ludwig scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- WVU
Cam Cook — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.14Recent average 0.71 over 7 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -170Cam Cook scored in 5 of 7 games this season (1.14 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 71% chance to score, against 63% in the DraftKings price (-170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Cam Cook scored a touchdown
- TTU
Terrance Carter Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.46Recent average 0.46 over 12 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160Terrance Carter Jr. scored in 3 of 6 games this season and in 0 of 6 games last season (0.46 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 46% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Terrance Carter Jr. scored 2 touchdowns
- WVU
Michael Hawkins Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 2Recent average 1 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -200Michael Hawkins Jr. scored in 7 of 7 games this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 67% in the DraftKings price (-200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Michael Hawkins Jr. scored 3 touchdowns
- WVU
Ryan Ward — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.38Recent average 0.38 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +475Ryan Ward scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.38 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 38% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ryan Ward did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
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