Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

WVU 25 – ISU 29

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ISU -3

Sportsbooks make Iowa State Cyclones the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 53.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 AM EDT

Our projected score

West Virginia Mountaineers logo West Virginia Mountaineers25

Iowa State Cyclones logo Iowa State Cyclones29

Final score

West Virginia Mountaineers logo West Virginia Mountaineers42

Iowa State Cyclones logo Iowa State Cyclones45

TNT — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones projection

West Virginia Mountaineers visit Iowa State Cyclones in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects WVU 25 – ISU 29, a 4-point edge to Iowa State Cyclones. DraftKings currently has ISU -3 with a total of 53.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.37 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -3 / 53.5, which sat 10.602 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.37 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-3 / 53.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Ryan Ward — Anytime touchdown: Yes+350DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:18 PM EDT · result pending

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Vince Benetti — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +245
Vince Benetti scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+245), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Vince Benetti scored a touchdown
Michael Hawkins Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WVU
We project 2.25Recent average 1 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -185
Michael Hawkins Jr. scored in 4 of 4 games this season (2.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 65% in the DraftKings price (-185), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Michael Hawkins Jr. scored 2 touchdowns
Easton Miller — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550
Easton Miller scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
DJ Epps — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WVU
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
DJ Epps scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: DJ Epps scored a touchdown
Ryan Ward — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WVU
We project 0.38Recent average 0.38 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +350
Ryan Ward scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.38 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 38% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+350), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.