

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
WAKE 27 – PUR 24
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
Model rating: low
The betting line
WAKE -3
Sportsbooks make Wake Forest Demon Deacons the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 50.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:07 AM EDT
Our projected score
Wake Forest Demon Deacons27
Purdue Boilermakers24
Final score
Wake Forest Demon Deacons38
Purdue Boilermakers36
Pick covered
FS1 — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 12, 2026
Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers projection
Wake Forest Demon Deacons visit Purdue Boilermakers in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects WAKE 27 – PUR 24, a 3-point edge to Wake Forest Demon Deacons. DraftKings currently has PUR +3 with a total of 50.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.58 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +3 / 50.5, which sat 2.105 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.58 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (3 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 27 – 24 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread +3, total 50.5, and the projected score is blended 85% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 13 for the home side and 14 for the away side, worth 1.57 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 2.1 points from the market.
- Model rating: unrated — 1.57 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (3 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
No player prop angles for this matchup yet. Our stat lines need a few completed games of form for each player before we publish a number, so early-season NCAA Football games fill in as the season goes on. Check back closer to kickoff.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
3-2
60% of graded picks covered
Road team

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record 0-1
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Wake Forest Demon Deacons picks & results
Home team

Purdue Boilermakers
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-0
See all Purdue Boilermakers picks & results
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