Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs
Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
VAN 13 – UGA 37
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
UGA -25.5
Sportsbooks make Georgia Bulldogs the favorite by 25.5. Expected combined score: 50.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Vanderbilt Commodores13
Georgia Bulldogs37
Final score
Vanderbilt Commodores14
Georgia Bulldogs38
SEC Network — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026
Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs projection
Vanderbilt Commodores visit Georgia Bulldogs in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects VAN 13 – UGA 37, a 24-point edge to Georgia Bulldogs. DraftKings currently has UGA -25.5 with a total of 50.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.70 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -25.5 / 50.5, which sat 24 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.70 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-25.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Sedrick Alexander — Anytime touchdown: Yes+200DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:16 PM EDT · result win
- London Humphreys — Anytime touchdown: Yes+450DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:16 PM EDT · result loss
- Lawson Luckie — Anytime touchdown: Yes+265DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:16 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- UGA
Talyn Taylor — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +125Talyn Taylor scored in 3 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Talyn Taylor did not score a touchdown
- VAN
Cole Spence — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550Cole Spence scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 2 of 4 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cole Spence did not score a touchdown
- VAN
Makhilyn Young — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.27Recent average 0.27 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +360Makhilyn Young scored in 1 of 4 games this season and in 2 of 6 games last season (0.27 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 27% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Makhilyn Young did not score a touchdown
- VAN
Sedrick Alexander — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.89 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +200Sedrick Alexander scored in 4 of 4 games this season and in 3 of 6 games last season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 89% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Sedrick Alexander scored a touchdown
- UGA
London Humphreys — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.38Recent average 0.38 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +450London Humphreys scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.38 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 38% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: London Humphreys did not score a touchdown
- UGA
Lawson Luckie — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.57Recent average 0.39 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +265Lawson Luckie scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 2 of 4 games last season (0.57 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 39% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+265), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Lawson Luckie did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record 1-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Vanderbilt Commodores picks & results
Home team
Georgia Bulldogs
Record 1-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Georgia Bulldogs picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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