UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats

UTSA Roadrunners visit Texas State Bobcats in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects UTSA 31 – TXST 34, a 3-point edge to Texas State Bobcats. DraftKings currently has TXST -2.5 with a total of 65.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.70 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -2.5 / 65.5, which sat 0.008 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.70 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-2.5 / 65.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.