UTSA Roadrunners at Texas Longhorns

UTSA Roadrunners visit Texas Longhorns in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects UTSA 15 – TEX 43, a 28-point edge to Texas Longhorns. DraftKings currently has TEX -29.5 with a total of 58.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.63 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -29.5 / 58.5, which sat 31.582 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.63 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-29.5 / 58.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.