Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

UTAH 27 – ISU 25

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

UTAH -8.5

Sportsbooks make Utah Utes the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 48.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 5:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Utah Utes logo Utah Utes27

Iowa State Cyclones logo Iowa State Cyclones25

Final score

Utah Utes logo Utah Utes31

Iowa State Cyclones logo Iowa State Cyclones17

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Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones projection

Utah Utes visit Iowa State Cyclones in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects UTAH 27 – ISU 25, a 2-point edge to Utah Utes. DraftKings currently has ISU +8.5 with a total of 48.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.42 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.42 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; the DraftKings observation is 28 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Larry Simmons — Anytime touchdown: Yes+700DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 10:17 PM EDT · result pending

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Noah Bennee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UTAH
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +220
Noah Bennee scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 31% in the DraftKings price (+220), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Noah Bennee did not score a touchdown
Vince Benetti — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380
Vince Benetti scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Easton Miller — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Easton Miller scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Easton Miller did not score a touchdown
Braden Pegan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UTAH
We project 1.33Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
Braden Pegan scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Braden Pegan scored a touchdown
Aiden Flora — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 0.83Recent average 0.61 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -115
Aiden Flora scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.83 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 61% chance to score, against 53% in the DraftKings price (-115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Aiden Flora did not score a touchdown
Larry Simmons — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UTAH
We project 0.44Recent average 0.35 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +700
Larry Simmons scored in 0 of 3 games this season and in 4 of 4 games last season (0.44 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.