Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
USU 16 – UTAH 40
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
UTAH -25.5
Sportsbooks make Utah Utes the favorite by 25.5. Expected combined score: 55.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Utah State Aggies16
Utah Utes40
Final score
Utah State Aggies0
Utah Utes33
Fox — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026
Preview: Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes projection
Utah State Aggies visit Utah Utes in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects USU 15 – UTAH 40, a 25-point edge to Utah Utes. DraftKings currently has UTAH -27.5 with a total of 55.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.55 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -27.5 / 55.5, which sat 12.152 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.55 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-27.5 / 55.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- UTAH
Noah Bennee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +100Noah Bennee scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 50% in the DraftKings price (+100), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- USU
Javon Robinson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320Javon Robinson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- USU
Eli Wood — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300Eli Wood scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Eli Wood did not score a touchdown
- USU
Demick Starling — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600Demick Starling scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Demick Starling did not score a touchdown
- UTAH
Wayshawn Parker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 3Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -340Wayshawn Parker scored in 2 of 2 games this season (3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 77% in the DraftKings price (-340), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Wayshawn Parker did not score a touchdown
- UTAH
Hunter Andrews — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +205Hunter Andrews scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+205), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Hunter Andrews did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Utah State Aggies
Record 1-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Utah State Aggies picks & results
Home team
Utah Utes
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Utah Utes picks & results
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