Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

USU 16 – UTAH 40

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

UTAH -25.5

Sportsbooks make Utah Utes the favorite by 25.5. Expected combined score: 55.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Utah State Aggies logo Utah State Aggies16

Utah Utes logo Utah Utes40

Final score

Utah State Aggies logo Utah State Aggies0

Utah Utes logo Utah Utes33

FOX — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes projection

Utah State Aggies visit Utah Utes in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects USU 15 – UTAH 40, a 25-point edge to Utah Utes. DraftKings currently has UTAH -27.5 with a total of 55.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.55 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -27.5 / 55.5, which sat 12.152 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.55 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-27.5 / 55.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 55.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 55 · Under win probability 52.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Noah Bennee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UTAH
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +100
Noah Bennee scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 50% in the DraftKings price (+100), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Javon Robinson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320
Javon Robinson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Eli Wood — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300
Eli Wood scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Eli Wood did not score a touchdown
Demick Starling — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Demick Starling scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Demick Starling did not score a touchdown
Wayshawn Parker — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UTAH
We project 3Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -340
Wayshawn Parker scored in 2 of 2 games this season (3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 77% in the DraftKings price (-340), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Wayshawn Parker did not score a touchdown
Hunter Andrews — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UTAH
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +205
Hunter Andrews scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+205), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Hunter Andrews did not score a touchdown