Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, November 7, 2026Final

UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026

The pick

Take Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5

Arkansas State Red Wolves is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 14.5 points.

Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 11:08 AM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

ARST -14.5

Sportsbooks make Arkansas State Red Wolves the favorite by 14.5. Expected combined score: 52.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 2:08 PM EST

Our projected score

UL Monroe Warhawks logo UL Monroe Warhawks20

Arkansas State Red Wolves logo Arkansas State Red Wolves35

Final score

UL Monroe Warhawks logo UL Monroe Warhawks19

Arkansas State Red Wolves logo Arkansas State Red Wolves17

Pick missed

ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026

Post-game: UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

On Saturday, November 7, 2026, UL Monroe pulled off an outright 19–17 upset over Arkansas State. Our model backed the Red Wolves to cover as 14.5-point home favorites, resulting in a clear loss against the tracked spread.

The projection was accurate on the visiting side, forecasting 20 points for a Warhawks team that finished with 19. However, the model heavily misjudged Arkansas State, anticipating 35 points from an attack that produced less than half that total. That offensive collapse removed any hope of building a margin.

Entering the game, our independent projection aligned tightly with the market, differing by just half a point before anchoring and carrying a low rating on an effective history of 6.33 weighted games. Trusting the heavy favorite proved to be a mistake, as Arkansas State fell well short of the output both our numbers and the closing line anticipated.

Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026

Preview: UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

The CoveredSports statistical model projects a 35–20 victory for the Arkansas State Red Wolves over the UL Monroe Warhawks on Saturday. That 15-point margin edges past the tracked spread of Arkansas State -14.5, giving the home favorite a fractional half-point lean to cover the number we took.

The calculation is built from 40 completed games on file—21 for the home side and 19 for the visitors—evaluating final scores and schedule dates with the prior season discounted and adjusted for opponent strength. With an effective sample of 6.33 weighted games, the output is blended 40 percent toward the DraftKings market (-14.5 spread, 51.5 total). The unanchored projection differed from the market line by just 0.516 points.

Because there is minimal separation between the independent projection and the market spread, the system assigns a low model rating to this matchup. Arkansas State -14.5 remains the pick, though the thin margin highlights how closely aligned the statistical model is with the market consensus.

How the model got here

Projected score: 20 – 35 (away – home).
Current DraftKings number used: spread -14.5, total 51.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
Completed games on file: 21 for the home side and 19 for the away side, worth 6.33 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 0.5 points from the market.
Model rating: low — 6.33 weighted games of history on both sides; score anchored 40% to the DraftKings number (-14.5 / 51.5); low: 0.3 points of retained edge. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Zach Palmer-Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes+550DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 4:18 AM EST · result pending
Timothy Carter — Anytime touchdown: Yes+170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 4:18 AM EST · result win
Nic Trujillo — Anytime touchdown: Yes+235DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 4:18 AM EST · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Derrick Jameson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ULM
We project 1Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300
Derrick Jameson scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Derrick Jameson did not score a touchdown
Tyler Little — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ARST
We project 0.22Recent average 0.22 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550
Tyler Little scored in 0 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.22 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 22% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Zach Palmer-Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ULM
We project 0.29Recent average 0.29 over 11 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +550
Zach Palmer-Smith scored in 1 of 4 games this season and in 3 of 7 games last season (0.29 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 29% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Timothy Carter — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ARST
We project 0.63Recent average 0.5 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +170
Timothy Carter scored in 4 of 8 games this season (0.63 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Timothy Carter scored a touchdown
Nic Trujillo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ULM
We project 0.61Recent average 0.41 over 11 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +235
Nic Trujillo scored in 2 of 5 games this season and in 3 of 6 games last season (0.61 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 41% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Nic Trujillo did not score a touchdown