Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

TROY 12 – MIZ 38

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

MIZ -27.5

Sportsbooks make Missouri Tigers the favorite by 27.5. Expected combined score: 49.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT

Our projected score

Troy Trojans logo Troy Trojans12

Missouri Tigers logo Missouri Tigers38

Final score

Troy Trojans logo Troy Trojans17

Missouri Tigers logo Missouri Tigers27

SECN+ — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers projection

Troy Trojans visit Missouri Tigers in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects TROY 12 – MIZ 38, a 26-point edge to Missouri Tigers. DraftKings currently has MIZ -27.5 with a total of 49.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.67 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -27.5 / 49.5, which sat 22.604 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.67 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-27.5 / 49.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 49.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 56 · Over win probability 58.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

TJ Lott — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TROY
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
TJ Lott scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
TK Keyes — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TROY
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +390
TK Keyes scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: TK Keyes scored a touchdown
Cayden Lee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIZ
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135
Cayden Lee scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cayden Lee did not score a touchdown
Donovan Olugbode — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIZ
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +125
Donovan Olugbode scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Donovan Olugbode scored a touchdown
Fabian Rogosch — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TROY
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +900
Fabian Rogosch scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 10% in the DraftKings price (+900), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Shaun Terry II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIZ
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450
Shaun Terry II scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.