Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals
Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
TOL 36 – BALL 16
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
TOL -21
Sportsbooks make Toledo Rockets the favorite by 21. Expected combined score: 52.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 1:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Toledo Rockets36
Ball State Cardinals16
Final score
Toledo Rockets39
Ball State Cardinals24
ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026
Preview: Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals projection
Toledo Rockets visit Ball State Cardinals in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects TOL 36 – BALL 16, a 20-point edge to Toledo Rockets. DraftKings currently has BALL +21 with a total of 52.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.62 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +21 / 52.5, which sat 15.988 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.62 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (21 / 52.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TOL
Cooper Rusk — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.3Recent average 0.3 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475Cooper Rusk scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 30% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- BALL
Jabari Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650Jabari Smith scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jabari Smith scored a touchdown
- TOL
Adjatay Dabbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -125Adjatay Dabbs scored in 3 of 4 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 56% in the DraftKings price (-125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Adjatay Dabbs did not score a touchdown
- BALL
Jalen Bonds — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.66Recent average 0.46 over 7 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +145Jalen Bonds scored in 2 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (0.66 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 46% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- TOL
Daryl Barnett Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +380Daryl Barnett Jr. scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Daryl Barnett Jr. scored a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Toledo Rockets
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Toledo Rockets picks & results
Home team
Ball State Cardinals
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Ball State Cardinals picks & results
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- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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