Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Texas Tech visits Oklahoma State this Saturday in a matchup projected to come down to the final possession. Our statistical model projects a narrow 33–32 victory for Texas Tech, producing an expected combined score right in line with the 63.5 posted total.

That projected one-point differential keeps Oklahoma State within the +1.5 spread we tracked when the matchup was logged. While current market pricing has since moved the Cowboys to -1.5 favorites, our projection provides Oklahoma State the cover at the +1.5 number we took.

This pick carries a low model rating. The projection is built from 42 completed games across the current and discounted prior seasons, opponent-adjusted with an effective sample of 7.15 weighted games on the thinner side. After blending the independent 2.2-point difference 40 percent toward the market line, the model sees a near-even contest where the tracked points are enough to cover.