Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
TEX 23 – TENN 34
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
TEX -4.5
Sportsbooks make Texas Longhorns the favorite by 4.5. Expected combined score: 55.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 5:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Texas Longhorns23
Tennessee Volunteers34
Final score
Texas Longhorns20
Tennessee Volunteers17
ABC — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026
Preview: Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers projection
Texas Longhorns visit Tennessee Volunteers in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects TEX 23 – TENN 34, a 11-point edge to Tennessee Volunteers. DraftKings currently has TENN +4.5 with a total of 55.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 15 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.61 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.61 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 28 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- DeSean Bishop — Anytime touchdown: Yes-130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 6:06 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TENN
TK Keys — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500TK Keys scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- TEX
James Simon — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475James Simon scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- TEX
Derrek Cooper — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +350Derrek Cooper scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+350), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Derrek Cooper did not score a touchdown
- TENN
Faizon Brandon — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +130Faizon Brandon scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Faizon Brandon did not score a touchdown
- TEX
Cam Coleman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.33Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +115Cam Coleman scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cam Coleman did not score a touchdown
- TENN
DeSean Bishop — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.36Recent average 0.93 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -130DeSean Bishop scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 4 of 5 games last season (1.36 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 93% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: DeSean Bishop did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Texas Longhorns
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Texas Longhorns picks & results
Home team
Tennessee Volunteers
Record 1-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Tennessee Volunteers picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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