Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Missouri Tigers +3.5
Missouri Tigers is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 3.5 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 31, 2026 · 1:04 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
TEX -2.5
Sportsbooks make Texas Longhorns the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 43.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 AM EST
Our projected score
Texas Longhorns25
Missouri Tigers23
Final score
Texas Longhorns34
Missouri Tigers20
Pick missed
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Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026
Post-game: Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, the Texas Longhorns pulled away for a 34–20 victory over the Missouri Tigers. Our model backed Missouri on the tracked +3.5 spread, resulting in a clear loss as Texas covered the number by double digits.
The projection anticipated a much tighter contest, forecasting a 25–23 Texas victory. While the model correctly identified Texas as the likely straight-up winner, it completely missed on the margin. Texas comfortably exceeded its projected offensive output, breaking open what was expected to be a one-possession game.
This pick carried a low rating, reflecting an effective sample of 6.26 weighted games across current and discounted prior-season results. Even with a 40 percent market anchor, our opponent-adjusted scoreline underestimated Texas's scoring capability, leading to an inaccurate read on the spread.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers projection
Texas Longhorns visit Missouri Tigers in NCAA Football on Saturday, November 7, 2026. The projection on file reads TEX 25 – MIZ 27, a 2-point edge to Missouri Tigers. DraftKings currently has MIZ +3.5 with a total of 49.5.
This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 25 – 23 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread +3.5, total 49.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 20 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 6.26 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 2.9 points from the market.
- Model rating: low — 6.26 weighted games of history on both sides; score anchored 40% to the DraftKings number (3.5 / 49.5); low: 1.7 points of retained edge. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Donovan Olugbode — Anytime touchdown: Yes+150DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 5:18 PM EST · result loss
- Cam Coleman — Anytime touchdown: Yes+155DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 5:18 PM EST · result pending
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- MIZ
Shaun Terry II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +900Shaun Terry II scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 10% in the DraftKings price (+900), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Shaun Terry II did not score a touchdown
- MIZ
Caleb Goodie Sr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600Caleb Goodie Sr. scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Caleb Goodie Sr. did not score a touchdown
- TEX
Michael Terry III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650Michael Terry III scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Michael Terry III did not score a touchdown
- TEX
Ryan Wingo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 16 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150Ryan Wingo scored in 4 of 8 games this season and in 4 of 8 games last season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ryan Wingo did not score a touchdown
- MIZ
Donovan Olugbode — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.96Recent average 0.82 over 13 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +150Donovan Olugbode scored in 6 of 7 games this season and in 2 of 6 games last season (0.96 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 82% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Donovan Olugbode did not score a touchdown
- TEX
Cam Coleman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.88Recent average 0.63 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +155Cam Coleman scored in 5 of 8 games this season (0.88 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Texas Longhorns
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Texas Longhorns picks & results
Home team
Missouri Tigers
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Missouri Tigers picks & results
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