Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Temple Owls at Toledo Rockets

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

TEM 22 – TOL 27

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

TOL -5.5

Sportsbooks make Toledo Rockets the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 48.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 2:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Temple Owls logo Temple Owls22

Toledo Rockets logo Toledo Rockets27

Final score

Temple Owls logo Temple Owls48

Toledo Rockets logo Toledo Rockets49

CBSSN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Temple Owls at Toledo Rockets projection

Temple Owls visit Toledo Rockets in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects TEM 22 – TOL 27, a 5-point edge to Toledo Rockets. DraftKings currently has TOL -5.5 with a total of 48.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.67 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -5.5 / 48.5, which sat 3.103 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.67 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-5.5 / 48.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 48.5 — Over -115 / Under -105.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 55 · Over win probability 59.7%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Cooper Rusk — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TOL
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +800
Cooper Rusk scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Adjatay Dabbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TOL
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +145
Adjatay Dabbs scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Adjatay Dabbs did not score a touchdown
Rico Bond — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TOL
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +250
Rico Bond scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+250), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Rico Bond did not score a touchdown
Ajani Sheppard — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TEM
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300
Ajani Sheppard scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Ajani Sheppard scored a touchdown
Jayce Freeman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TEM
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +190
Jayce Freeman scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+190), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jayce Freeman did not score a touchdown