Temple Owls at Navy Midshipmen
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Temple Owls +7.5
Temple Owls is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 7.5 points.
Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 12:08 PM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
NAVY -7
Sportsbooks make Navy Midshipmen the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 55.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EST
Our projected score
Temple Owls22
Navy Midshipmen29
Final score
Temple Owls35
Navy Midshipmen42
Pick covered
CBSSN — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Temple Owls at Navy Midshipmen
The CoveredSports statistical model projects a 29–22 victory for the Navy Midshipmen when they host the Temple Owls this Saturday. With Navy favored by 7.5 points on the DraftKings line we tracked at publication, our projected seven-point margin puts Temple in position to cover by a half-point hook.
This forecast comes from model version cs-ncaaf-2026.09.3, which evaluates 41 opponent-adjusted game results across the current and discounted prior seasons. Working from an effective sample of 7.16 weighted games on the thinner side, the model’s independent projection diverged from the market by 1.6 points before applying a 40% anchor toward the DraftKings spread of 7.5 and total of 52.5.
Because the projected final score sits so close to the tracked number, our model assigns a low rating to Temple +7.5. The projection leans toward the Owls keeping the final deficit within a single touchdown, though the statistical edge over the market baseline is slim.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 22 – 29 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread -7.5, total 52.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 21 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 7.16 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 1.6 points from the market.
- Model rating: low — 7.16 weighted games of history on both sides; score anchored 40% to the DraftKings number (-7.5 / 52.5); low: 1.0 points of retained edge. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Braxton Woodson — Anytime touchdown: Yes-110DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 2:18 PM EST · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- NAVY
Jordan Collins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.59Recent average 0.39 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +255Jordan Collins scored in 2 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.59 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 39% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+255), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jordan Collins scored a touchdown
- NAVY
Braxton Woodson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.05Recent average 0.66 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110Braxton Woodson scored in 3 of 5 games this season and in 3 of 3 games last season (1.05 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 66% chance to score, against 52% in the DraftKings price (-110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Braxton Woodson did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Temple Owls
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-0
See all Temple Owls picks & results
Home team
Navy Midshipmen
Record 1-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Navy Midshipmen picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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