Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knights

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

TCU 32 – UCF 24

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

TCU -3

Sportsbooks make TCU Horned Frogs the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 48.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 10:06 PM EDT

Our projected score

TCU Horned Frogs logo TCU Horned Frogs32

UCF Knights logo UCF Knights24

Final score

TCU Horned Frogs logo TCU Horned Frogs13

UCF Knights logo UCF Knights21

FS1 — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knights projection

TCU Horned Frogs visit UCF Knights in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects TCU 32 – UCF 23, a 9-point edge to TCU Horned Frogs. DraftKings currently has UCF +3 with a total of 48.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.59 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.59 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Waden Charles — Anytime touchdown: Yes+360DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:29 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ka'Morreun Pimpton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TCU
We project 0.78Recent average 0.78 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
Ka'Morreun Pimpton scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.78 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 78% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ka'Morreun Pimpton did not score a touchdown
Kari Ashley — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TCU
We project 1Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +270
Kari Ashley scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Kari Ashley did not score a touchdown
Jon Denman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TCU
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +205
Jon Denman scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+205), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jon Denman did not score a touchdown
Jonathan Bibbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCF
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
Jonathan Bibbs scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Agyeman Addae — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCF
We project 0.48Recent average 0.48 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Agyeman Addae scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.48 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 48% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Agyeman Addae did not score a touchdown
Waden Charles — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCF
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +360
Waden Charles scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 0 of 5 games last season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Waden Charles did not score a touchdown