Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky Wildcats

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

USA 28 – UK 27

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

UK -20.5

Sportsbooks make Kentucky Wildcats the favorite by 20.5. Expected combined score: 54.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 9:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

South Alabama Jaguars logo South Alabama Jaguars28

Kentucky Wildcats logo Kentucky Wildcats27

Final score

South Alabama Jaguars logo South Alabama Jaguars21

Kentucky Wildcats logo Kentucky Wildcats45

SEC Network — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky Wildcats projection

South Alabama Jaguars visit Kentucky Wildcats in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects USA 28 – UK 27, a 1-point edge to South Alabama Jaguars. DraftKings currently has UK -20.5 with a total of 54.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.59 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.59 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Bishop Davenport — Anytime touchdown: Yes+210DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 2:16 PM EDT · result pending
Henry Boyer — Anytime touchdown: Yes+255DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 2:16 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Prince Jean — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UK
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +370
Prince Jean scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+370), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Brendan Jenkins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USA
We project 0.78Recent average 0.78 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +225
Brendan Jenkins scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.78 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 78% chance to score, against 31% in the DraftKings price (+225), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brendan Jenkins did not score a touchdown
PJ Martin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USA
We project 0.83Recent average 0.83 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +105
PJ Martin scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.83 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 83% chance to score, against 49% in the DraftKings price (+105), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: PJ Martin scored a touchdown
Mikkel Skinner — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UK
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +295
Mikkel Skinner scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+295), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Mikkel Skinner did not score a touchdown
Bishop Davenport — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USA
We project 0.75Recent average 0.58 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +210
Bishop Davenport scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 4 of 6 games last season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 58% chance to score, against 32% in the DraftKings price (+210), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Henry Boyer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UK
We project 0.43Recent average 0.43 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +255
Henry Boyer scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 0 of 3 games last season (0.43 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 43% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+255), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Henry Boyer did not score a touchdown