San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
SDSU 27 – TOL 26
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
TOL -3
Sportsbooks make Toledo Rockets the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 51.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:06 PM EDT
Our projected score
San Diego State Aztecs27
Toledo Rockets26
Final score
San Diego State Aztecs16
Toledo Rockets41
CBSSN — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026
Preview: San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets projection
San Diego State Aztecs visit Toledo Rockets in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects SDSU 27 – TOL 26, a 1-point edge to San Diego State Aztecs. DraftKings currently has TOL -3 with a total of 51.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.65 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.65 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- SDSU
Justius Lowe — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450Justius Lowe scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- TOL
Cooper Rusk — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.3Recent average 0.3 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750Cooper Rusk scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 30% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- TOL
Adjatay Dabbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135Adjatay Dabbs scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Adjatay Dabbs scored a touchdown
- TOL
Rico Bond — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +265Rico Bond scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+265), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Rico Bond did not score a touchdown
- SDSU
Jackson Ford — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.3Recent average 0.3 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650Jackson Ford scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 0 of 3 games last season (0.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 30% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jackson Ford did not score a touchdown
- SDSU
Nathan Acevedo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.43Recent average 0.43 over 8 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +195Nathan Acevedo scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 0 of 5 games last season (0.43 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 43% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+195), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Nathan Acevedo did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all San Diego State Aztecs picks & results
Home team
Toledo Rockets
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Toledo Rockets picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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