Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, November 7, 2026Final

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026

The pick

Take Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16.5

Rutgers Scarlet Knights is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 16.5 points.

Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 11:08 AM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

WIS -19.5

Sportsbooks make Wisconsin Badgers the favorite by 19.5. Expected combined score: 45.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:08 PM EST

Our projected score

Rutgers Scarlet Knights logo Rutgers Scarlet Knights17

Wisconsin Badgers logo Wisconsin Badgers32

Final score

Rutgers Scarlet Knights logo Rutgers Scarlet Knights10

Wisconsin Badgers logo Wisconsin Badgers31

Pick missed

BTN — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026

Post-game: Rutgers falls to Wisconsin and misses the spread

On Saturday, November 7, 2026, the Wisconsin Badgers defeated the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 31–10. With a 21-point margin of victory, Wisconsin cleared the tracked DraftKings spread of +16.5, handing our medium-rated pick on the Scarlet Knights a clear loss.

Our model had projected a 32–17 Wisconsin victory, expecting a slightly closer 15-point contest. The projection anticipated Wisconsin's offensive output almost perfectly, missing the Badgers' 31-point total by just a single point. What it missed was Rutgers’ side of the scoreboard; the Scarlet Knights fell seven points short of their projected total, generating only 10 points and failing to stay inside the margin.

The model entered the game with an effective history of 7.22 weighted games from opponent-adjusted recent results, blended 40% toward the market number after showing a 3.2-point pre-anchor disagreement. That slight edge on the underdog proved unwarranted, as the model was too optimistic about Rutgers' ability to sustain offense on the road.

Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026

Preview: Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers

The Wisconsin Badgers host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this Saturday, with DraftKings setting the line at Wisconsin -16.5 and the total at 46.5. Our statistical model projects a final score of Wisconsin 32, Rutgers 17. With that projected 15-point margin, the pick is Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16.5, landing the underdog just inside the number we took.

This projection carries a medium rating. Before anchoring to the live market, our independent projection differed from the spread by 3.18 points in Rutgers' favor. Blending that raw output 40% toward the DraftKings consensus brings the margin to 15 points and aligns the total close to the market line.

The model builds its baseline from 40 completed games across the current and discounted prior seasons, adjusting for opponent quality across both sides. That data translates to an effective history of 7.22 weighted games, which leans on the thinner side despite strong feature quality. While a statistical model cannot offer certainty, the calculated projection points toward Rutgers keeping the final deficit within the tracked spread.

How the model got here

Projected score: 17 – 32 (away – home).
Current DraftKings number used: spread -16.5, total 46.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
Completed games on file: 20 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 7.22 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 3.2 points from the market.
Model rating: medium.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Clay Thevenin — Anytime touchdown: Yes+240DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 6:18 PM EST · result loss
KJ Duff — Anytime touchdown: Yes+135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 6:18 PM EST · result pending

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Malachi Coleman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WIS
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550
Malachi Coleman scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Vernon Allen III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
RUTG
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +900
Vernon Allen III scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 10% in the DraftKings price (+900), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Emmett Bork — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WIS
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550
Emmett Bork scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Chris Brooks Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WIS
We project 0.36Recent average 0.36 over 13 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +235
Chris Brooks Jr. scored in 3 of 8 games this season and in 0 of 5 games last season (0.36 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 36% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Clay Thevenin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
RUTG
We project 0.75Recent average 0.63 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +240
Clay Thevenin scored in 5 of 8 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+240), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Clay Thevenin did not score a touchdown
KJ Duff — Anytime touchdown: Yes
RUTG
We project 1.24Recent average 0.71 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +135
KJ Duff scored in 5 of 7 games this season and in 4 of 7 games last season (1.24 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 71% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.