Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack

On Friday, September 11, 2026, NC State overwhelmed Richmond in a 73-0 rout. Facing a tracked spread of 33.5 points, our pick on the Spiders failed to cover by a massive margin as Richmond was shut out entirely.

The model projected a 41-9 victory for the Wolfpack. That projected score was strongly anchored to the DraftKings number because the available history was thin, relying on a small sample of opponent-adjusted final scores and schedule dates. As with all of our outputs, this was a model projection rather than a recommendation.

While the model correctly identified NC State as the clear favorite, it vastly underestimated the Wolfpack's scoring ceiling and Richmond's complete collapse. Blending heavily toward the market kept the expectation within standard blowout territory, but it proved nowhere near wide enough for a 73-point margin.

Richmond Spiders visit NC State Wolfpack in NCAA Football on Friday, September 11, 2026. Our model projects RICH 9 – NCSU 41, a 32-point edge to NC State Wolfpack. DraftKings currently has NCSU -33.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 1 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.04 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -33.5 / 50.5, which sat 33.19 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.04 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-33.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.