Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

PUR 19 – UCLA 33

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

UCLA -14

Sportsbooks make UCLA Bruins the favorite by 14. Expected combined score: 52.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 10:34 PM EDT

Our projected score

Purdue Boilermakers logo Purdue Boilermakers19

UCLA Bruins logo UCLA Bruins33

Final score

Purdue Boilermakers logo Purdue Boilermakers38

UCLA Bruins logo UCLA Bruins52

BTN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins projection

Purdue Boilermakers visit UCLA Bruins in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects PUR 19 – UCLA 33, a 14-point edge to UCLA Bruins. DraftKings currently has UCLA -14 with a total of 52.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 11 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.54 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -14 / 52.5, which sat 3.148 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.54 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-14 / 52.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 52.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 57 · Over win probability 56.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 424 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Fame Ijeboi — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 2Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -130
Fame Ijeboi scored in 2 of 2 games this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Fame Ijeboi scored 2 touchdowns
Chauncey Magwood — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300
Chauncey Magwood scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chauncey Magwood did not score a touchdown
Wayne Knight — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCLA
We project 3Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -245
Wayne Knight scored in 2 of 2 games this season (3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 71% in the DraftKings price (-245), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Wayne Knight scored 2 touchdowns
Jaivian Thomas — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCLA
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +155
Jaivian Thomas scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jaivian Thomas scored a touchdown
De'Nylon Morrissette — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +330
De'Nylon Morrissette scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+330), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: De'Nylon Morrissette did not score a touchdown