Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5
Penn State Nittany Lions is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 2.5 points.
Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 11:08 AM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
WASH -2.5
Sportsbooks make Washington Huskies the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 46.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EST
Our projected score
Penn State Nittany Lions23
Washington Huskies24
Final score
Penn State Nittany Lions28
Washington Huskies25
Pick covered
FS1 — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies
Penn State visits Washington on Saturday in a matchup our statistical model expects to be decided by the slimmest of margins. The model projects a 24–23 victory for the Huskies. That one-point projected margin falls inside the tracked DraftKings spread of Penn State +2.5, the number we took when the line was logged.
The projection is built from 42 completed games across the current and discounted prior seasons, adjusted for opponent strength. This yields an effective sample of 7.23 weighted games, which sits on the thinner side. Before blending the estimate 40 percent toward the DraftKings market numbers (a -2.5 spread and a 44.5 total), the model's independent calculation differed from the market spread by 2.4 points.
Because the model has Washington winning by only one point, it projects Penn State to cover the +2.5 spread. However, with an effective sample that remains modest and a projected margin close to the market consensus, the model assigns a low rating to this pick.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 23 – 24 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread -2.5, total 44.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 21 for the home side and 21 for the away side, worth 7.23 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 2.4 points from the market.
- Model rating: low — 7.23 weighted games of history on both sides; score anchored 40% to the DraftKings number (-2.5 / 44.5); low: 1.4 points of retained edge. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Carson Hansen — Anytime touchdown: Yes+140DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 2:18 PM EST · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- WASH
Mason James — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +850Mason James scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+850), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- WASH
Jordan Clay — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600Jordan Clay scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- PSU
Cam Wallace — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.6Recent average 0.6 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310Cam Wallace scored in 3 of 5 games this season (0.6 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 60% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Cam Wallace scored a touchdown
- WASH
Jayden Limar — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +170Jayden Limar scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jayden Limar did not score a touchdown
- PSU
Andrew Rappleyea — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.43Recent average 0.43 over 12 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +200Andrew Rappleyea scored in 3 of 7 games this season and in 2 of 5 games last season (0.43 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 43% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Andrew Rappleyea did not score a touchdown
- PSU
Carson Hansen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.63Recent average 0.63 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +140Carson Hansen scored in 5 of 8 games this season (0.63 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Carson Hansen scored a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Penn State Nittany Lions picks & results
Home team
Washington Huskies
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Washington Huskies picks & results
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