Post-game analysisNCAA FootballFriday, October 2, 2026Final

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

Post-game analysis · Friday, October 2, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

PSU 24 – NU 22

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

PSU -2.5

Sportsbooks make Penn State Nittany Lions the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 46.5

DraftKings · updated Fri, 7:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Penn State Nittany Lions logo Penn State Nittany Lions24

Northwestern Wildcats logo Northwestern Wildcats22

Final score

Penn State Nittany Lions logo Penn State Nittany Lions13

Northwestern Wildcats logo Northwestern Wildcats34

Fox — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 2, 2026

Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats projection

Penn State Nittany Lions visit Northwestern Wildcats in NCAA Football on Friday, October 2, 2026. Our model projects PSU 24 – NU 22, a 2-point edge to Penn State Nittany Lions. DraftKings currently has NU +2.5 with a total of 46.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 11 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.53 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +2.5 / 46.5, which sat 5.073 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.53 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (2.5 / 46.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Andrew Rappleyea — Anytime touchdown: Yes+550DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:18 PM EDT · result loss
Joseph Himon II — Anytime touchdown: Yes+265DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 8:18 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Aidan Chiles — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NU
We project 1.33Recent average 1 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +110
Aidan Chiles scored in 3 of 3 games this season (1.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 48% in the DraftKings price (+110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Aidan Chiles scored a touchdown
Alex Honig — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Alex Honig scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Alex Honig did not score a touchdown
Zay Robinson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PSU
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Zay Robinson scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Zay Robinson did not score a touchdown
Benjamin Brahmer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PSU
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +190
Benjamin Brahmer scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+190), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Benjamin Brahmer did not score a touchdown
Andrew Rappleyea — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PSU
We project 0.39Recent average 0.39 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +550
Andrew Rappleyea scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 2 of 4 games last season (0.39 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 39% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Andrew Rappleyea did not score a touchdown
Joseph Himon II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NU
We project 0.94Recent average 0.5 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +265
Joseph Himon II scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 5 games last season (0.94 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+265), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Joseph Himon II scored 2 touchdowns