Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, November 7, 2026Final

Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes

Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026

The pick

Take Oregon Ducks +12.5

Oregon Ducks is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 12.5 points.

Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 1:08 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: medium

The betting line

OSU -7.5

Sportsbooks make Ohio State Buckeyes the favorite by 7.5. Expected combined score: 44.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EST

Our projected score

Oregon Ducks logo Oregon Ducks20

Ohio State Buckeyes logo Ohio State Buckeyes29

Final score

Oregon Ducks logo Oregon Ducks41

Ohio State Buckeyes logo Ohio State Buckeyes28

Pick covered

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026

Post-game: Oregon Ducks Cover in Upset of Ohio State Buckeyes

On Saturday, November 7, 2026, the Oregon Ducks secured an outright 41–28 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes. That result cleared our tracked DraftKings spread of Oregon +12.5 with plenty of room to spare, giving our medium-rated pick a clean win.

The model correctly leaned toward the underdog, anticipating a much tighter contest than the market's double-digit line suggested. Drawing on opponent-adjusted scores and schedule dates from this season and the discounted prior year, the projections accurately captured that Oregon was being undervalued catching nearly two converted touchdowns.

That said, the model did not foresee an outright Oregon triumph or an offensive display of this magnitude. The baseline forecast had projected a 29–20 Ohio State victory, significantly underestimating Oregon's ability to put up 41 points on the road. While the side cashed comfortably, the actual game script was far more tilted in Oregon's favor than our score projection indicated.

Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026

Preview: Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes projection

Oregon Ducks visit Ohio State Buckeyes in NCAA Football on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Our model projects ORE 17 – OSU 30, a 13-point edge to Ohio State Buckeyes. DraftKings has no spread posted for this game right now.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.47 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -14 / 45.5, which sat 19.257 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.47 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-14 / 45.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

How the model got here

Projected score: 20 – 29 (away – home).
Current DraftKings number used: spread -12.5, total 45.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
Completed games on file: 22 for the home side and 23 for the away side, worth 7.31 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 5.0 points from the market.
Model rating: medium.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Evan Stewart — Anytime touchdown: Yes+290DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 3:18 PM EST · result loss
Dakorien Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes+255DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 3:18 PM EST · result win
Jamari Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+270DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 3:18 PM EST · result win
Jeremiah Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes-215DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 3:18 PM EST · result win
Chris Henry Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes+500DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 3:18 PM EST · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Mason Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OSU
We project 0.2Recent average 0.2 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +800
Mason Williams scored in 1 of 5 games this season (0.2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 20% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Mason Williams did not score a touchdown
Evan Stewart — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ORE
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +290
Evan Stewart scored in 4 of 6 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+290), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Evan Stewart did not score a touchdown
Dakorien Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ORE
We project 0.72Recent average 0.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +255
Dakorien Moore scored in 5 of 8 games this season and in 0 of 2 games last season (0.72 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 60% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+255), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Dakorien Moore scored a touchdown
Jamari Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ORE
We project 0.46Recent average 0.46 over 11 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +270
Jamari Johnson scored in 3 of 6 games this season and in 0 of 5 games last season (0.46 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 46% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jamari Johnson scored a touchdown
Jeremiah Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OSU
We project 1.6Recent average 0.87 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -215
Jeremiah Smith scored in 7 of 8 games this season and in 4 of 6 games last season (1.6 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 87% chance to score, against 68% in the DraftKings price (-215), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jeremiah Smith scored a touchdown
Chris Henry Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OSU
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +500
Chris Henry Jr. scored in 2 of 6 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chris Henry Jr. did not score a touchdown