Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
MISS 29 – FLA 35
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
FLA -3.5
Sportsbooks make Florida Gators the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 58.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 5:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Ole Miss Rebels29
Florida Gators35
Final score
Ole Miss Rebels28
Florida Gators52
ABC — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026
Preview: Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators projection
Ole Miss Rebels visit Florida Gators in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects MISS 29 – FLA 35, a 6-point edge to Florida Gators. DraftKings currently has FLA -3.5 with a total of 58.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.80 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.80 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Kewan Lacy — Anytime touchdown: Yes-135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:30 PM EDT · result pending
- Jadan Baugh — Anytime touchdown: Yes-450DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:30 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- FLA
Bailey Stockton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320Bailey Stockton scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Bailey Stockton did not score a touchdown
- MISS
Johntay Cook II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500Johntay Cook II scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Johntay Cook II did not score a touchdown
- FLA
Aaron Philo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +170Aaron Philo scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Aaron Philo scored a touchdown
- MISS
Caleb Odom — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.42Recent average 0.42 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +280Caleb Odom scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (0.42 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 42% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+280), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Caleb Odom did not score a touchdown
- MISS
Kewan Lacy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.57Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -135Kewan Lacy scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 6 of 6 games last season (1.57 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- FLA
Jadan Baugh — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 2.14Recent average 1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -450Jadan Baugh scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 6 of 6 games last season (2.14 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 82% in the DraftKings price (-450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jadan Baugh scored 3 touchdowns
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Ole Miss Rebels
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-0
See all Ole Miss Rebels picks & results
Home team
Florida Gators
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-0
See all Florida Gators picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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