Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Kansas State Wildcats +6.5
Kansas State Wildcats is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 11:08 AM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: medium
The betting line
OKST -7
Sportsbooks make Oklahoma State Cowboys the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 63.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:08 PM EST
Our projected score
Oklahoma State Cowboys33
Kansas State Wildcats29
Final score
Oklahoma State Cowboys66
Kansas State Wildcats28
Pick missed
TNT — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026
Post-game: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, Oklahoma State dismantled Kansas State in a 66–28 blowout, delivering a decisive loss on our tracked pick backing the Wildcats at +6.5. Kansas State fell behind early, conceded points in bunches, and failed to generate the stops required to keep the final margin anywhere near the betting line.
Our model had anticipated a tightly contested matchup, projecting a 33–29 victory for Oklahoma State and assigning a medium rating to Kansas State to cover the spread. While the projection correctly identified Oklahoma State as the outright winner, it completely miscalculated the competitive balance and game flow.
Blending opponent-adjusted scoring trends from recent schedules with market lines pointed toward a one-possession contest. Instead, Oklahoma State effectively doubled its projected offensive output and broke the game wide open, resulting in an unequivocal misfire for our model against the tracked spread.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats
The Oklahoma State Cowboys head on the road to meet the Kansas State Wildcats this Saturday. Our statistical model projects a tight contest, forecasting a 33–29 victory for Oklahoma State. With the market total set at 60.5, the model anticipates a fairly brisk pace with both offenses finding steady scoring opportunities.
That projected four-point margin points to value on the Kansas State Wildcats at +6.5, the tracked DraftKings spread we took when publishing. Because the baseline forecast has Kansas State staying within the number despite trailing on the scoreboard, the model assigns a medium rating to the Wildcats covering the spread at home.
The projection is built from 40 completed games across the current and discounted prior season, adjusted for opponent strength across an effective sample of 7.27 weighted games. Prior to applying a 40% anchor to the DraftKings market lines, the model's independent projection differed from the market by 3.1 points, ultimately settling on our final four-point margin.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 33 – 29 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread +6.5, total 60.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 20 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 7.27 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 3.1 points from the market.
- Model rating: medium.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Wyatt Young — Anytime touchdown: Yes+115DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 10:18 PM EST · result loss
- Justin Bowick — Anytime touchdown: Yes+100DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 10:18 PM EST · result win
- Garrett Oakley — Anytime touchdown: Yes+270DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 10:18 PM EST · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- OKST
Carson Kolb — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +425Carson Kolb scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- KSU
Jay Harris — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +400Jay Harris scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- KSU
Jaron Tibbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.49Recent average 0.49 over 15 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +140Jaron Tibbs scored in 4 of 8 games this season and in 1 of 7 games last season (0.49 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 49% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jaron Tibbs did not score a touchdown
- OKST
Wyatt Young — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.88 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +115Wyatt Young scored in 7 of 8 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 88% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Wyatt Young did not score a touchdown
- OKST
Justin Bowick — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.13Recent average 0.88 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +100Justin Bowick scored in 7 of 8 games this season (1.13 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 88% chance to score, against 50% in the DraftKings price (+100), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Justin Bowick scored a touchdown
- KSU
Garrett Oakley — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.48Recent average 0.46 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +270Garrett Oakley scored in 2 of 5 games this season and in 4 of 5 games last season (0.48 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 46% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Garrett Oakley did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Oklahoma State Cowboys picks & results
Home team
Kansas State Wildcats
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Kansas State Wildcats picks & results
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