Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes
Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
OSU 30 – IOWA 16
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
OSU -14.5
Sportsbooks make Ohio State Buckeyes the favorite by 14.5. Expected combined score: 46.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Ohio State Buckeyes30
Iowa Hawkeyes16
Final score
Ohio State Buckeyes31
Iowa Hawkeyes14
CBS — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026
Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes projection
Ohio State Buckeyes visit Iowa Hawkeyes in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects OSU 30 – IOWA 16, a 14-point edge to Ohio State Buckeyes. DraftKings currently has IOWA +14.5 with a total of 46.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.55 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +14.5 / 46.5, which sat 14.691 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.55 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (14.5 / 46.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Brandon Inniss — Anytime touchdown: Yes+370DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Oct 1, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- OSU
Chris Henry Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +360Chris Henry Jr. scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- IOWA
Dayton Howard — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1000Dayton Howard scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 9% in the DraftKings price (+1000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- IOWA
Addison Ostrenga — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +700Addison Ostrenga scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- OSU
Legend Bey — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +425Legend Bey scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- IOWA
Braeden Jackson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.67Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +400Braeden Jackson scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Braeden Jackson scored a touchdown
- OSU
Brandon Inniss — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.37Recent average 0.37 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +370Brandon Inniss scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 3 of 7 games last season (0.37 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 37% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+370), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brandon Inniss did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Ohio State Buckeyes picks & results
Home team
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Iowa Hawkeyes picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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