Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

OHIO 21 – USA 28

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

USA -7

Sportsbooks make South Alabama Jaguars the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 48.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT

Our projected score

Ohio Bobcats logo Ohio Bobcats21

South Alabama Jaguars logo South Alabama Jaguars28

Final score

Ohio Bobcats logo Ohio Bobcats36

South Alabama Jaguars logo South Alabama Jaguars41

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Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars projection

Ohio Bobcats visit South Alabama Jaguars in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects OHIO 21 – USA 28, a 7-point edge to South Alabama Jaguars. DraftKings currently has USA -7 with a total of 48.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.67 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -7 / 48.5, which sat 3.569 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.67 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-7 / 48.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 48.5 — Over -115 / Under -105.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 55 · Over win probability 59.7%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Victor Rosa — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OHIO
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135
Victor Rosa scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Victor Rosa scored a touchdown
PJ Martin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -210
PJ Martin scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 68% in the DraftKings price (-210), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: PJ Martin scored a touchdown
Anthony Eager — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +350
Anthony Eager scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+350), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Anthony Eager did not score a touchdown
Riley Neer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OHIO
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +235
Riley Neer scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Riley Neer scored 2 touchdowns
Brendan Jenkins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
USA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135
Brendan Jenkins scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brendan Jenkins did not score a touchdown