Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

ND 31 – PUR 23

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ND -27.5

Sportsbooks make Notre Dame Fighting Irish the favorite by 27.5. Expected combined score: 58.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:06 PM EDT

Our projected score

Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish31

Purdue Boilermakers logo Purdue Boilermakers23

Final score

Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish49

Purdue Boilermakers logo Purdue Boilermakers10

Peacock — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers projection

Notre Dame Fighting Irish visit Purdue Boilermakers in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects ND 31 – PUR 23, a 8-point edge to Notre Dame Fighting Irish. DraftKings currently has PUR +27.5 with a total of 58.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 11 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.53 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.53 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 25 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

James Flanigan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310
James Flanigan scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: James Flanigan did not score a touchdown
Fame Ijeboi — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 2Recent average 1 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -120
Fame Ijeboi scored in 3 of 3 games this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 55% in the DraftKings price (-120), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Fame Ijeboi did not score a touchdown
De'Nylon Morrissette — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +850
De'Nylon Morrissette scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+850), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: De'Nylon Morrissette did not score a touchdown
Cooper Flanagan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +285
Cooper Flanagan scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+285), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Cooper Flanagan scored a touchdown
George Burhenn — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
George Burhenn scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
CJ Carr — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 0.45Recent average 0.45 over 7 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +145
CJ Carr scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 2 of 5 games last season (0.45 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 45% chance to score, against 41% in the DraftKings price (+145), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: CJ Carr scored a touchdown