Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

ND 34 – UNC 13

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ND -21

Sportsbooks make Notre Dame Fighting Irish the favorite by 21. Expected combined score: 46.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 AM EDT

Our projected score

Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish34

North Carolina Tar Heels logo North Carolina Tar Heels13

Final score

Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish37

North Carolina Tar Heels logo North Carolina Tar Heels26

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Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels projection

Notre Dame Fighting Irish visit North Carolina Tar Heels in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects ND 34 – UNC 13, a 21-point edge to Notre Dame Fighting Irish. DraftKings currently has UNC +21 with a total of 46.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 11 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.53 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +21 / 46.5, which sat 4.404 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.53 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (21 / 46.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Demon June — Anytime touchdown: Yes+200DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss
Benjamin Hall — Anytime touchdown: Yes+170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Cooper Flanagan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +400
Cooper Flanagan scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cooper Flanagan did not score a touchdown
James Flanigan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
James Flanigan scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Ty Washington — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550
Ty Washington scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ty Washington did not score a touchdown
Jelani Thurman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNC
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +370
Jelani Thurman scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+370), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jelani Thurman scored 2 touchdowns
Demon June — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNC
We project 0.97Recent average 0.48 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +200
Demon June scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 7 games last season (0.97 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 48% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Demon June did not score a touchdown
Benjamin Hall — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNC
We project 0.48Recent average 0.48 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +170
Benjamin Hall scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 7 games last season (0.48 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 48% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Benjamin Hall did not score a touchdown