Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers
Post-game analysis · Friday, September 25, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
NU 22 – IU 29
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
IU -21
Sportsbooks make Indiana Hoosiers the favorite by 21. Expected combined score: 49.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 9:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Northwestern Wildcats22
Indiana Hoosiers29
Final score
Northwestern Wildcats23
Indiana Hoosiers29
Fox — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 25, 2026
Preview: Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers projection
Northwestern Wildcats visit Indiana Hoosiers in NCAA Football on Friday, September 25, 2026. Our model projects NU 22 – IU 29, a 7-point edge to Indiana Hoosiers. DraftKings currently has IU -21 with a total of 49.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 15 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.84 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.84 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- IU
Turbo Richard — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.33Recent average 1 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -275Turbo Richard scored in 3 of 3 games this season (1.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 73% in the DraftKings price (-275), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Turbo Richard did not score a touchdown
- IU
Nick Marsh — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +115Nick Marsh scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Nick Marsh scored a touchdown
- NU
Alex Honig — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550Alex Honig scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Alex Honig did not score a touchdown
- NU
Aidan Chiles — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +260Aidan Chiles scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+260), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Aidan Chiles scored a touchdown
- IU
Davion Chandler — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +210Davion Chandler scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 32% in the DraftKings price (+210), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Davion Chandler did not score a touchdown
- NU
Joseph Himon II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.17Recent average 0.67 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300Joseph Himon II scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (1.17 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Joseph Himon II did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Northwestern Wildcats picks & results
Home team
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Indiana Hoosiers picks & results
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- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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