Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona Wildcats

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

NIU 9 – ARIZ 41

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ARIZ -34.5

Sportsbooks make Arizona Wildcats the favorite by 34.5. Expected combined score: 49.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 9:49 PM EDT

Our projected score

Northern Illinois Huskies logo Northern Illinois Huskies9

Arizona Wildcats logo Arizona Wildcats41

Final score

Northern Illinois Huskies logo Northern Illinois Huskies17

Arizona Wildcats logo Arizona Wildcats42

TNT — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona Wildcats projection

Northern Illinois Huskies visit Arizona Wildcats in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects NIU 9 – ARIZ 41, a 32-point edge to Arizona Wildcats. DraftKings currently has ARIZ -33.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.60 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -33.5 / 50.5, which sat 22.964 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.60 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-33.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 49.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Low

Our projected combined score is 51 · Over win probability 50.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 424 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Shane King — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ARIZ
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +360
Shane King scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Antwan Roberts Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ARIZ
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +195
Antwan Roberts Jr. scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+195), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Antwan Roberts Jr. did not score a touchdown
DeAree Rogers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NIU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
DeAree Rogers scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: DeAree Rogers did not score a touchdown
Brandon Phelps — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ARIZ
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +400
Brandon Phelps scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brandon Phelps did not score a touchdown
Telly Johnson Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NIU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +180
Telly Johnson Jr. scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+180), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Telly Johnson Jr. did not score a touchdown