Post-game analysisNCAA FootballThursday, October 1, 2026Final

North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Post-game analysis · Thursday, October 1, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

UNT 29 – TLSA 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

UNT -3

Sportsbooks make North Texas Mean Green the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 56.5

DraftKings · updated Thu, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

North Texas Mean Green logo North Texas Mean Green29

Tulsa Golden Hurricane logo Tulsa Golden Hurricane26

Final score

North Texas Mean Green logo North Texas Mean Green45

Tulsa Golden Hurricane logo Tulsa Golden Hurricane44

ESPN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 1, 2026

Preview: North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane projection

North Texas Mean Green visit Tulsa Golden Hurricane in NCAA Football on Thursday, October 1, 2026. Our model projects UNT 29 – TLSA 26, a 3-point edge to North Texas Mean Green. DraftKings currently has TLSA +3 with a total of 56.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.58 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +3 / 56.5, which sat 1.329 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.58 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (3 / 56.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Seth Davis — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TLSA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380
Seth Davis scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Kyle Koch — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNT
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Kyle Koch scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Kyle Koch scored a touchdown
Oran Singleton Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TLSA
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
Oran Singleton Jr. scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Oran Singleton Jr. did not score a touchdown
Baron Tipton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNT
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
Baron Tipton scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Baron Tipton did not score a touchdown
Jahiem White — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNT
We project 2.25Recent average 1 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -400
Jahiem White scored in 4 of 4 games this season (2.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 80% in the DraftKings price (-400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jahiem White scored a touchdown