Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

UNT 29 – TXST 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

TXST -3

Sportsbooks make Texas State Bobcats the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 62.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:07 AM EDT

Our projected score

North Texas Mean Green logo North Texas Mean Green29

Texas State Bobcats logo Texas State Bobcats26

Final score

North Texas Mean Green logo North Texas Mean Green35

Texas State Bobcats logo Texas State Bobcats49

USA Net — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats projection

North Texas Mean Green visit Texas State Bobcats in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. The projection on file reads UNT 29 – TXST 26, a 3-point edge to North Texas Mean Green. DraftKings currently has TXST -3 with a total of 62.5.

This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 62.5 — Over -108 / Under -112.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 55 · Under win probability 61.2%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Tayven Jackson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNT
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +170
Tayven Jackson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Tayven Jackson did not score a touchdown
Chris Dawn Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TXST
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +105
Chris Dawn Jr. scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 49% in the DraftKings price (+105), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Chris Dawn Jr. scored 2 touchdowns
Brendon Haygood — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNT
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -115
Brendon Haygood scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 53% in the DraftKings price (-115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Brendon Haygood scored a touchdown
Davian Jackson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TXST
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -150
Davian Jackson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 60% in the DraftKings price (-150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Davian Jackson scored 4 touchdowns
Brad Jackson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TXST
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -425
Brad Jackson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 81% in the DraftKings price (-425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brad Jackson did not score a touchdown
Max Reese — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNT
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +290
Max Reese scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+290), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Max Reese did not score a touchdown