Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State Hornets

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

NDSU 36 – SAC 14

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

NDSU -26.5

Sportsbooks make North Dakota State Bison the favorite by 26.5. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 9:49 PM EDT

Our projected score

North Dakota State Bison logo North Dakota State Bison36

Sacramento State Hornets logo Sacramento State Hornets14

Final score

North Dakota State Bison logo North Dakota State Bison31

Sacramento State Hornets logo Sacramento State Hornets10

ESPN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State Hornets projection

North Dakota State Bison visit Sacramento State Hornets in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects NDSU 36 – SAC 14, a 22-point edge to North Dakota State Bison. DraftKings currently has SAC +26.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.47 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +26.5 / 50.5, which sat 29.497 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.47 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (26.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 50.5 — Over -118 / Under -102.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 53 · Over win probability 53.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 424 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jace Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SAC
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Jace Wilson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Chris Kiel — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NDSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +330
Chris Kiel scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+330), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Logan Conklin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NDSU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +360
Logan Conklin scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Mekhi Collins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NDSU
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
Mekhi Collins scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Mekhi Collins did not score a touchdown
Matt Coleman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SAC
We project 1Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320
Matt Coleman scored in 1 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Matt Coleman did not score a touchdown
Isaiah Ene — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SAC
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310
Isaiah Ene scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Isaiah Ene did not score a touchdown