New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears

The CoveredSports statistical model projects a tight contest on Saturday, forecasting a 26–24 victory for the Missouri State Bears over the visiting New Mexico State Aggies. When we published, we took the Aggies at the tracked spread of +2.5 against a total of 50.5. At that projected scoreline, New Mexico State covers the tracked number by half a point.

The projection draws on 43 completed games in the database across the current and discounted prior season—comprising 22 home-side and 21 away-side results—with opponent adjustments applied. That yields an effective sample of 7.79 weighted games. The independent output is then blended with a 40% anchor toward the DraftKings market spread and total.

Before anchoring, the independent calculation differed from the market consensus by approximately 0.9 points. Because the final blended model lands on a two-point margin of victory for Missouri State, it edges toward New Mexico State +2.5 to cover. Given the thin effective history and the slim half-point edge against the tracked line, the model assigns a low rating to this pick.