New Mexico State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

New Mexico State Aggies visit Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects NMSU 22 – HAW 28, a 6-point edge to Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors. DraftKings currently has HAW -7.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.59 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -7.5 / 50.5, which sat 12.867 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.59 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-7.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.