Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma Sooners

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

UNM 13 – OU 33

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

OU -21.5

Sportsbooks make Oklahoma Sooners the favorite by 21.5. Expected combined score: 45.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 7:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

New Mexico Lobos logo New Mexico Lobos13

Oklahoma Sooners logo Oklahoma Sooners33

Final score

New Mexico Lobos logo New Mexico Lobos6

Oklahoma Sooners logo Oklahoma Sooners14

ESPNEWS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma Sooners projection

New Mexico Lobos visit Oklahoma Sooners in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects UNM 13 – OU 33, a 20-point edge to Oklahoma Sooners. DraftKings currently has OU -21.5 with a total of 45.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.67 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -21.5 / 45.5, which sat 23.395 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.67 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-21.5 / 45.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 45.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 55 · Over win probability 64.1%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 124 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Scottre Humphrey — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNM
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +185
Scottre Humphrey scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 35% in the DraftKings price (+185), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Scottre Humphrey did not score a touchdown
Luke Moga — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNM
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Luke Moga scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Luke Moga did not score a touchdown
Rocky Beers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135
Rocky Beers scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Rocky Beers did not score a touchdown
Mackenzie Alleyne — Anytime touchdown: Yes
OU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +390
Mackenzie Alleyne scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
DJ Darling — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UNM
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +800
DJ Darling scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.