Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

NCSU 29 – VAN 28

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

VAN -3

Sportsbooks make Vanderbilt Commodores the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

NC State Wolfpack logo NC State Wolfpack29

Vanderbilt Commodores logo Vanderbilt Commodores28

Final score

NC State Wolfpack logo NC State Wolfpack31

Vanderbilt Commodores logo Vanderbilt Commodores35

SEC Network — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores projection

NC State Wolfpack visit Vanderbilt Commodores in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. The projection on file reads NCSU 29 – VAN 28, a 1-point edge to NC State Wolfpack. DraftKings currently has VAN -3 with a total of 50.5.

This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 50.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 57 · Over win probability 59.7%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Walter Taylor — Anytime touchdown: Yes
VAN
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
Walter Taylor scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Will Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NCSU
We project 3Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320
Will Wilson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Will Wilson scored a touchdown
Preston Douglas — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NCSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310
Preston Douglas scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Preston Douglas did not score a touchdown
Davion Gause — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NCSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +230
Davion Gause scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+230), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Davion Gause did not score a touchdown
Sedrick Alexander — Anytime touchdown: Yes
VAN
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -245
Sedrick Alexander scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 71% in the DraftKings price (-245), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Sedrick Alexander scored a touchdown