Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers
Post-game analysis · Friday, September 25, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
NAVY 27 – UAB 24
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
NAVY -7
Sportsbooks make Navy Midshipmen the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 51.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:06 PM EDT
Our projected score
Navy Midshipmen27
UAB Blazers24
Final score
Navy Midshipmen20
UAB Blazers24
ESPN — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 25, 2026
Preview: Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers projection
Navy Midshipmen visit UAB Blazers in NCAA Football on Friday, September 25, 2026. Our model projects NAVY 27 – UAB 24, a 3-point edge to Navy Midshipmen. DraftKings currently has UAB +7 with a total of 51.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.51 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.51 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; the DraftKings observation is 26 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- NAVY
Braxton Woodson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.75Recent average 1 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -300Braxton Woodson scored in 2 of 2 games this season and in 2 of 2 games last season (1.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 75% in the DraftKings price (-300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- NAVY
Jordan Collins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.3Recent average 0.3 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +350Jordan Collins scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 30% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+350), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- UAB
Kaleb Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.23Recent average 0.23 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500Kaleb Brown scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (0.23 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 23% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- NAVY
Charles Robinson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +270Charles Robinson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Charles Robinson did not score a touchdown
- UAB
Ryder Burton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.29Recent average 0.29 over 8 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +330Ryder Burton scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 5 games last season (0.29 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 29% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+330), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ryder Burton did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Navy Midshipmen
Record 1-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Navy Midshipmen picks & results
Home team
UAB Blazers
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all UAB Blazers picks & results
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