Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

NAVY 22 – AFA 25

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

AFA -3

Sportsbooks make Air Force Falcons the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 45.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 AM EDT

Our projected score

Navy Midshipmen logo Navy Midshipmen22

Air Force Falcons logo Air Force Falcons25

Final score

Navy Midshipmen logo Navy Midshipmen9

Air Force Falcons logo Air Force Falcons14

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons projection

Navy Midshipmen visit Air Force Falcons in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects NAVY 22 – AFA 25, a 3-point edge to Air Force Falcons. DraftKings currently has AFA -3 with a total of 45.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.46 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -3 / 45.5, which sat 1.759 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.46 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-3 / 45.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Kemper Hodges — Anytime touchdown: Yes+170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Oct 3, 10:07 AM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Matt Long — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AFA
We project 0.43Recent average 0.43 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +245
Matt Long scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 0 of 2 games last season (0.43 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 43% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+245), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Jordan Collins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NAVY
We project 0.3Recent average 0.3 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Jordan Collins scored in 1 of 1 game this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.3 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 30% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Adam Hrynciw — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AFA
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +390
Adam Hrynciw scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Adam Hrynciw did not score a touchdown
Charles Robinson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
NAVY
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +270
Charles Robinson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+270), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Charles Robinson did not score a touchdown
Kemper Hodges — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AFA
We project 0.52Recent average 0.52 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +170
Kemper Hodges scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.52 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 52% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Kemper Hodges did not score a touchdown