Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf Pack

Montana State Bobcats visit Nevada Wolf Pack in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects MTST 28 – NEV 24, a 4-point edge to Montana State Bobcats. DraftKings currently has NEV +4 with a total of 51.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 1 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.04 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +4 / 51.5, which sat 12.404 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.04 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (4 / 51.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.