Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks

On Friday, September 11, 2026, the Missouri Tigers defeated the Kansas Jayhawks 38–21. Our tracked pick on Kansas +4 did not cover the spread, as Missouri controlled the contest and pulled away to secure a 17-point road victory.

The model projected a 28–24 Missouri win. Because the available history is thin, the projected score is strongly anchored to the DraftKings number, and this is a model projection rather than a recommendation.

While the model correctly pointed toward a Missouri win, it significantly underestimated the scoring environment and the final margin. Missouri's offense generated far more separation than the 4-point spread suggested, pushing the combined score past the 51.5 total and leaving Kansas well behind the number.

Missouri Tigers visit Kansas Jayhawks in NCAA Football on Friday, September 11, 2026. Our model projects MIZ 28 – KU 24, a 4-point edge to Missouri Tigers. DraftKings currently has KU +4 with a total of 51.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.61 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +4 / 51.5, which sat 4.481 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.61 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (4 / 51.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.